Don’t be evil – 谈谷歌(Google)威胁退出中国市场

(English version will be ready soon)

这两天除了海地地震之外，另一个令人震惊的消息就是谷歌(Google)威胁退出中国市场。一石激起千层浪，各方面的评论铺天盖地蜂拥而至。中美官方也分别作出反应，立场自然是严重对立。这一事件已然超越了互联网和商业范畴，而更多引发的是民主、人权甚至国家主权的讨论。

作为一个海外华人，笔者能理解各方所执的一辞，愿意尽量公正的看待此事。所谓冰冻三尺非一日之寒，我们先看一下事件的历史背景和政治背景：

创业：Google于2006年正式推出Google.cn中文网，开始其中国之路。Google与中国政府达成协议，同意审查部分搜索结果。此举当时就遭西方人权团体痛批，称Google与其时常挂嘴边的「不作恶」，「资讯自由流通、共享共用」的信念与宗旨相违背。

竞争：Google 在大陆市场面临与百度的激烈竞争，但据统计已牢牢夺取大陆搜索市场三成的份额，仅次于百度。虽然Google目前在大陆营收与其两百多亿美元的年收入可谓九牛一毛，但3.6亿大陆网民数，是Google的庞大潜在市场，也是Google欲一统全球搜索及搜索广告总策略的重要基石。

形象：事实上，Google在大陆的运营，无论与广告商的合作还是对新闻的处理，都比百度来得规范，已在大陆网民中建立正面形象。而百度在被曝光可付费拿掉负面新闻或消息之后，不得不夹起尾巴做人，向Google的理念靠拢以保证搜索结果的公正性。

妥协：Google没有预料到的是，当其已对中国政府的审查制度做出妥协后，大陆官方刻意扶植百度的动作有增无减，在大陆的商业营运一直遭不平等待遇。从中国一方来看，这种做法就如同包括中国在内的许多国家利用非关税壁垒来保护家电和汽车等重要或者敏感的朝阳行业一样，无可厚非。更何况中国是一个新闻管制国家，互联网的出现对其新闻政策提出了的历史性挑战，也从客观上促进了新闻透明化和言论自由化的进程。

受创：2009年，谷歌中国流年不利。一月和四月，两次被互联网违法和不良信息举报中心公开曝光，原因是谷歌中国网站存在黄色淫秽内容和低俗链接，旗下YouTube.com从此无法在中国浏览；六月，大陆网管部门因此暂停Google.cn的境外搜索业务和联想词搜索业务，并责令整改；九月，将谷歌带入中国市场的李开复宣布离职自己创业；之后，谷歌多个本地化业务停滞。

事发：1月12日，谷歌公司发展事务副总裁、首席法律顾问David Drummond在博客中说，去年12月下旬Google侦测到了一次来自中国、针对20多家大型公司和数位民运人士的Gmail账户的黑客攻击，攻击者有可能已经获得了一些重要的技术资料和敏感的私人信息，而且谷歌公司的知识产权遭到窃取。这一事件让 Google感到不安，何况他们同时还在面对越来越严格的内容审查要求。Drummond在文中表示，谷歌已经决定不愿再审查用户在Google.cn上的搜索结果，公司将在未来几周和中国相关部门讨论在什么样基础上能够在法律框架内运营未经过滤的搜索引擎。谷歌承认这很可能意味着公司将不得不关闭Google.cn，以及在中国的办公室。

目前，业内大多数人士认为，Google 的退出大陆市场声明，是逼北京坐上谈判桌，因大陆需要Google的存在，以维持其对外开放形象，最后极可能双方各退一步，北京同意将过滤及审查字眼放 宽。正如不少西方资讯业者说的，不能因面临审查就断然退出，整体上，他们仍能帮助拓宽中国民众获知信息的渠道。

根据当前掌握的信息综合来看，笔者认为谷歌事件是一场政治和意识形态博弈的表现，而且这仅仅是一个新的开端。

黑客攻击不是什么新鲜事，更不是Google专享。事实上，就在几天前，全球最大的中文搜索引擎百度也被“黑”，创下了百度创建以来最大的一次断网事故。而Google特意将被黑一事和中国政府过滤搜索引擎联系在一起无疑是借题发挥，以图改变Google在中国发展不利的状况。这一推断的理由非常充分：

1、 Google是否撤出中国不会改变黑客攻击现象。只要互联网存在，黑客攻击永远不会消失，不以任何一个公司或者政府的意志或者存在与否而改变。如果一个国家的搜索引擎公司的撤出可以消除该国的黑客，Google应该首先从美国撤出。

2、 每个政府对新闻和信息都进行监控和管制，只是方式不同。美国国家安全局从2005年就开始对普通公民的电话和电子邮件进行海量记录和监听（按照美国法律是严重违法的，参看http://www.eff.org/issues/nsa-spying）-- 众所周知，包括Google和AT&T等大公司都有着深厚的政府背景，否则在这个私有化的国家政府根本无法实施信息监管。按照Google针对中国政府监管用户信息而采取行动的逻辑，Google是不是首先应该给美国政府一个最后通牒威胁撤出美国呢？

3、 Google是一个公司，不是一个政治集团，和世界上所有商业组织一样，其唯一宗旨是利润最大化。“不做恶”(Don’t be evil)只是Google在创业初期提出来的一个非正式的口号，在过去的几年里Google已经有意慢慢将之淡化，因为树大招风，这一过于绝对化的口号太容易招徕不同利益集团的非议（一个群体眼中的善可能就是另一个群体眼中的恶）。Google在中国的成就是有目共睹的，但是国际网络巨头在中国水土不服并非新闻，从从雅虎(Yahoo!)的黯然淡出我们可以略见一斑，而Google经过数年经营始终无法突破30%的市场份额瓶颈也是事实（搜狗、SOSO、有道等本土搜索引擎的介入使其市场份额提升更是难上加难），与其在美国本土和欧洲市场的所向披靡形成鲜明对比。Google一直在寻求机会和突破口，而黑客攻击事件正是一个同时符合Google和美国政府立场的摊牌机会。

事实上，就在David Drummond发表博克文章的5天前，美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)在国务院举行了一个小型晚宴，邀请了IT界的重量级人物，包括谷歌首席执行官埃里克·施密特 (Eric Schmidt)、Twitter创始人杰克·多尔西(Jack Dorsey)、微软首席研究与战略官克瑞格·蒙迪(Craig Mundie)，以及思科 首席营销官Susan Bostron, 纽约大学教授Clay Shirky, 个人民主创始人Andrew Rasiej等（参看http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jason-liebman/perspective-on-digital-di_b_416876.html）。晚宴讨论的核心内容就是信息自由化，希拉里希望这些巨头联手研发新技术，保证地球人可以不受当地政府控制自由上网。在谷歌发出此“最后通牒”不超过二十四小时前，美国国务卿希拉里的一名顾问表示，希拉里下周将宣布一项科技政策，帮助其它国家的公民查看未被审查的互联网内容。难道Google向中国政府示威和希拉里的晚宴仅仅是时间上的巧合吗？

Google撤出中国市场不仅仅是威胁，而是一颗红心两手准备。就像在赌场下赌注一样，Google敢于和中国政府叫板不仅仅是因为有美国政府的支持，更重要的是这个赌局Google玩得起。Google在中国的总投资不过1,000万美元，2009年在中国市场的收入约为6亿美元，相比在欧美市场的200多亿美元不足挂齿。即使跟中国政府谈崩了，Google在华尔街的股价也不会受到实质性的打击。因此，Google摆足了“我意已决”的姿态，中国业务全部休眠，正式员工全部可以带薪休假。反过来讲，如果Google在中国的市场份额是70%，就算是奥巴马亲自做说客，Larry Page和Sergey Brin也一定不会下此赌注。

但是从长远看，一旦“谷歌中国”撤出,意味着Google将损失超过3亿的中国网民基础,所带来的损失也不可估量。来自中国互联网协会的最新统计数据显示，截至2009年6月底，中国的网民数已经达到3.38亿，位居全球互联网网民人数首位。也就是说，Google的最大损失是未来若干年的潜在利润。2007年、2008年Google在中国市场的收入超过增长100%，2009年的收入增长超过50%。且以50%的增长速度计算，Google在未来5年内的损失接近120亿美元。另外，Google退出必然壮大中国本土的搜索引擎，如百度和搜狐等。如果Google以后再想卷土重来，难度和成本一定是几何级数的上升。再者，随着Google撤出，一大批代理商和合作伙伴都会“很受伤”，对Google的声誉无疑会产生非常负面的影响。

从中国政府的角度看，Google撤出原本是一个普通的商业行为，但是因为涉及到敏感的新闻管制和人权问题，政府应该是愿意和Google坐下来谈一谈，毕竟世界上最大搜索引擎“被迫”离开，不是一件光彩的事情，可能会导致中国受到国际社会的抨击。然而，谷歌发出消息后的晚些时候，希拉里在美国政府官方网站上发布《谷歌在中国业务的声明》。表示已经从谷歌方面获知概况，谷歌的说法引起了“严重关注和疑问”，并期待中国政府对此解释。随着希拉里的介入，谷歌退出中国事件或转化为外交事件，而谷歌中国通告中提到的“解决方案”或将在外交风波结束后才能明朗。

众所周知，随着经济迅速发展和国力强大，中国政府已然不像从前一样大量使用太极外交，取而代之的是实力外交。在对待欧美强国的时候，尤其是在人权问题上经常表现强硬，而因为中国在国际舞台上与日俱增的影响力和今年来不争气的西方经济，美英法等国不仅无可奈何，有时候还要作必要的让步 – 最近奥巴马和哈伯访华就是鲜活的例子。当商业事件上升为敏感话题的外交事件，问题就麻烦了。中国政府的谈判对象从Google变成了美国政府，商业调解变成了政治争端，整个事件反而复杂化，双赢的可能性几乎为零，而Google极有可能变成两国政府斗法的牺牲品。

从技术层面看，IT行业永远是魔高一尺、道高一丈，即便是如希拉里所愿，这些IT巨头联手研发成功新技术，保证地球人可以不受当地政府控制自由上网，这种技术难道是永恒的吗？何况这本身就不是纯技术话题，技术从下层为经济服务，政治从上层为经济服务–政治家的智慧永远是凌驾于技术之上的。

以此看来，笔者认为Google在一个错误的时间（中强美弱）上了一艘错误的船（希拉里毕竟只是一颗棋子），做了一个错误的决定（威胁撤出中国）。在Google重新高歌Don’t be evil的时候，我们只能苦口良药的奉劝一句：Don’t be naïve. （不要太幼稚）。

Purpose of the Blog -- Synchronize with China

Never in history has a country experienced such fast development as China has in recent times. In merely 20 years, China has grown from an unknown country to the "awoken dragon" or “the next superpower” predicted by Sinologists.

Many westerners, including North Americans, were overwhelmed by a psychological and memory gap "created" by the western media. The superpower seemed to come from nowhere! For those who flip through newspapers and TV channels daily, over the past two decades they heard almost nothing but poverty, cheap labor or tyranny concerning this half-a-world-away country. How come it all-of-a-sudden out-of-the-blue became a superpower-to-be?

This is not to blame the reporters or the anchormen. In the media world, it's well known that "Dog bites man" is not as newsworthy as "man bites dog." That's why over 80% of what we heard over news is about war, crime, poverty and disaster. The same was true about the reports on China. How many people would be interested to know the steady economic growth every year in a huge Asian country? And who cares that China not only survived the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis but also played an important role to stop it from further rippling? By contrast, Japan might have been more under the spotlight of western media because 1) it's more familiar to westerners, and 2) Japan, although not affected much by the crisis, was going through its own long-term economic difficulties.

Yet, the fact is China's economy has been steadily developing at a high speed over the last 20 years, but only after a painful decade of inside-out reconstruction. Today, with GDP growing consistently around 10% each year (see chart)and hitting US$2.68 trillion in 2006, an overview of almost any of China's economic sectors becomes out of date before the proverbial ink dries. That means any books about China's economy become outdated by the time it's published. To westerners, who often lack access to China's media or the language capability to understand what is really going on in China, the Internet seems to be the only high-speed medium that can keep up with China's the super-fast development.

To prove our point, here is another important change going on in China you might not be aware at all. To those of you who would be surprised to see a NOT "Made in China" tag attached to the items you purchase from Wal-Mart or other department stores, you might think everybody has outsourced their production to China due to its cheap labor. Well, you are only half right. Nowadays, realizing China has gradually become one of the world's largest consumer markets, including luxury goods and services, many Fortune 500 companies have established their sales and marketing forces in China, not just their manufacturing divisions.

We are not here to idealize China or anything close. China certainly has its own many challenges ahead of the road, including an over-heating economy, a growing labor shortage (amazing for a country of 1.3 billion pairs of hands), appreciation pressure on the currency, an imbalanced industry structure, rife corruption in the government, an over-sized population and shocking wealth disparity. What we are here to do is to help westerners communicate with Chinese, familiarize the local business environment, go through culture shock, and overcome various barriers when dealing with the country and its people.

So, who are we and what we are going to do? We, a westerner who has lived and studied China in depth for more than seven years and a Chinese who has lived and worked in North America for seven years (plus another three working with westerners in China), are going to help you understand China with an unbiased and balanced view. From culture to economy to politics, from major cities to rural areas, from "lao bai xing" ("average Joe" in Chinese) to government officials, we can tell you about the real China with real stories, real studies and real pictures. We have the resource, both in China and western countries, to prepare special reports, including digests of the most recent research on China, that will open your eyes to China, enhance your China knowledge and enrich your China experience.

Special reports on specific topics can be put together as fast as in one to two weeks, a speed only bested by newspaper and the Internet. But they are more in-depth and comprehensive than most articles people can find in the fast media. Therefore, the reports are synchronized with China's development. What we need from you is your participation. Why not tell us about your experience with China: what you liked the most, what frustrated you the most, and what you'd like to understand better. We'll do our best to help you.

You have the desire to explore an amazing market, and we have the passion to connect people, not only business people, in both China and North America, and beyond. It's important. It might be the basis of understanding, and (who knows?) even peace between two peace-loving peoples. In any case, the time is beyond ripe to do so.

Top photo caption: The emblem of China's former-emperors is a lion with its paw on the globe symbolizing the anciently-held belief that he was the ruler of the world, a view that has begun to reassert itself in the minds of many as China reemerges on the world stage as a major economic power, political and military.

Bottom photo caption: A documentary film by CBC Television in partnership with US and European media networks: Go into the heart of a country that's experiencing the most remarkable transformation in the history of the planet, as the oldest civilization on earth becomes the world's dominant superpower. China will host the world at the 2008 Olympics, and is already affecting almost every country on the globe.